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Browsing Publications by Author "Aggarwal, P.K."

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    Climate change and coconut plantations in India: Impacts and potential adaptation gains
    (2013) Naresh Kumar, S.; Aggarwal, P.K.
    The assessment of impact of climate change on coconut, a plantation crop, is challenging. However, the development of a simulation model (InfoCrop-COCONUT) has enabled the process. We present the first simulation analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on coconut productivity in India following two approaches, namely: (i) ‘fixed increase in temperature and CO2, and (ii) scenarios as per PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) – a regional climate model. Impact of changed management on coconut productivity in current as well as in future climates is also assessed. Climate change is projected to increase coconut productivity in western coastal region, Kerala, parts of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra (provided current level of water and management is made available in future climates as well) and also in North-Eastern states, islands of Andaman and Nicobar and Lakshadweep while negative impacts are projected for Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, West Bengal, Gujarat and parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. On all India basis, even with current management, climate change is projected to increase coconut productivity by 4.3% in A1B 2030, 1.9% in A1B 2080, 6.8% in A2 2080 and 5.7% in B2 2080 scenarios of PRECIS over mean productivity of 2000–2005 period. Agronomic adaptations like soil moisture conservation, summer irrigation, drip irrigation, and fertilizer application cannot only minimize losses in majority of coconut growing regions, but also improve productivity substantially. Further, genetic adaptation measures like growing improved local Tall cultivars and hybrids under improved crop management is needed for long-term adaptation of plantation to climate change, particularly in regions that are projected to be negatively impacted by climate change. Such strategy can increase the productivity by about 33% in 2030, and by 25–32% in 2080 climate scenarios. In fact, productivity can be improved by 20% to almost double if all plantations in India are provided with above mentioned management even in current climates. In places where positive impacts are projected, current poor management may become a limiting factor in reaping the benefits of CO2 fertilization, while in negatively affected regions adaptation strategies can reduce the impacts. Thus, intensive genetic and agronomic adaptation to climate change can substantially benefit the coconut production in India.
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    Impact of climate change on crop productivity in Western Ghats, coastal and northeastern regions of India
    (2011-08) Naresh Kumar, S.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Swaroopa Rani; Surabhi Jain; Rani Saxena; Nitin Chauhan
    Assessment on impact of climate change on major crops in ecologically sensitive areas, viz. the Western Ghats (WG), coastal districts and northeastern (NE) states of India, using InfoCrop simulation model, projected varying impacts depending on location, climate, projected climate scenario, type of crop and its management. Irrigated rice and potato in the NE region, rice in the eastern coastal region and coconut in the WG are likely to gain. Irrigated maize, wheat and mustard in the NE and coastal regions, and rice, sorghum and maize in the WG may lose. Adaptation strategies such as change in variety and altered agronomy can, however, offset the impacts of climate change.
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    Simulating coconut growth, development and yield with the InfoCrop-Coconut model
    (Heron Publishing, Victoria, 2008-05) Naresh Kumar, S.; Kasturi Bai, K.V.; Rajagopal, V.; Aggarwal, P.K.
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    Simulating the impacts of climate change on cotton production in India
    (2013) Hebbar, K.B.; Venugopalan, M.V.; Prakash, A.H.; Aggarwal, P.K.
    General circulation models (GCMs) project increases in the earth's surface air temperatures and other climate changes by the mid or late 21 st century, and therefore crops such as cotton (Gossypium spp L.) will be grown in a much different environment than today. To understand the implications of climate change on cotton production in India, cotton production to the different scenarios (A2, B2 and A 1 B) of future climate was simulated using the simulation model lnfocrop-cotton. The GCM projections showed a nearly 3.95, 3.20 and 1.85 °C rise in mean temperature of cotton growing regions of India for the A2, B2 and A1B scenarios, respectively. Simulation results using the Infocrop-cotton model indicated that seed cotton yield declined by 477 kgha-I for the A2 scenario and by 268 kgha-I for the B2 scenario; while it was non-significant for the AlB scenario. However, it became non-significant under elevated [CO2] levels across all the scenarios. The yield decline was higher in the northern zone over the southern zone. The impact of climate change on rainfed cotton which covers more than 60 % of the country's total cotton production area (mostly in the central zone) and is dependent on the monsoons is likely to be minimum, possibly on account of marginal increase in rainfall levels. Results of this assessment suggest that productivity in northern India may marginally decline; while in central and southern India, productivity may either remain the same or increase. At the national level, therefore, cotton production is unlikely to change with climate change. Adaptive measures such as changes in planting time and more responsive cultivars may further boost cotton production in India.