Forecasting of arecanut market price in north eastern India: ARIMA modelling approach

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dc.contributor.authorSandip Shil
dc.contributor.authorAcharya, G.C.
dc.contributor.authorJose, C.T.
dc.contributor.authorMuralidharan, K.
dc.contributor.authorSit, A.K.
dc.contributor.authorGeorge V. Thomas
dc.date.accessioned2014-06-19T06:35:21Z
dc.date.available2014-06-19T06:35:21Z
dc.date.issued2013-12
dc.description.abstractThe paper deals with forecasting of minimum, maximum and average arecanut (Areca catechu L.) prices in the major arecanut markets of the Assam as well as Meghalaya based on the monthly price data. Monthly minimum, maximum, and average market price data of arecanut (in Rs./quintal) for the period May-2003 to March-2012 (for Assam) and February-2003 to March-2012 (for Meghalaya) were used. Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methodology was adopted for developing the models. An interrupted time-series model was also applied to resolve the problem of intervention point (October-2011) for Meghalaya price data. The proposed models were ARIMA (1, 0, 1), ARIMA (1, 1, 1), ARIMA (0, 1, 1) (for Assam market price data series) and, log ARIMA (0, 1, 1), log ARIMA (1, 0, 1) with linear trend and a man-made intervention (Oct-2011) and log ARIMA (0, 1, 1) with linear trend and a manmade intervention (Oct-2011) (for Meghalaya market price data series) for minimum, maximum, and average monthly price series, respectively.en_US
dc.identifier.citationJournal of Plantation Crops, 2013, 41(3): 330-337en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/3085
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.subjectArecanuten_US
dc.subjectARIMAen_US
dc.subjectforecastingen_US
dc.subjectinterrupted time series modelen_US
dc.subjectintervention modelen_US
dc.titleForecasting of arecanut market price in north eastern India: ARIMA modelling approachen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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