Production analysis including exogenous variable for coconut and its availability and utilization in Bangladesh
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2010
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The study was done to estimate the growth rate of area, production and productivity of coconut including abiotic factors, availability and utilization level especially in oil form, and forecast the future coconut production at the national level. The times series data of 35 years were analyzed with exponential econometric model and it was found that annual compound growth rate (CGR) in area expansion was 0.90 per cent and its contribution was significantly greater than that of yield components indicating the absence of modern management technique for increasing coconut yield in production sector. The analysis shows with power function model that the coefficients of different components such as area and yield were different and their magnitudes also varied and significant at different levels. This was found to be positive except the coefficient associated with binary/ dummy variable for cyclone i.e. this abiotic factor has negative effect on coconut production and averagely more than 10 percent of the production was destroyed each time by storms and cyclones in Bangladesh. This functional analysis also showed decreasing return to scale. The estimated productions were 88111.51 m.tons and 8811.15 m. tones in normal and cyclonic years/periods respectively. From the time series data for 21 years (1984-85 to 2004-05) on coconut oil availability and utilization, it is found that the quantity used has been increasing with a CGR of -2 per cent. It is reflected that the utilization level of imported coconut oil has been decreasing indicating a stage of cutting down of import due to continuous increasing and instantly higher price in the international market and also an indication of more stress in the use of locally available product. Therefore, sound policy is necessary to protect coconut groves owners, traders as well as the national interest.
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icj, vol. lii no.9 jan.2010,p.11-18,