Price behaviour in coconut and its derivatives in India

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Date

2009

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Abstract

Remunerative and stable price for agricultural produce helps in increasing the production of that commodity. The coconut-based industry in India revolves around the price of coconut oil, which is influenced by the price and overall availability of other vegetable oils. It is against this background that the study aims at segregating the secular trend, seasonal, cyclical and irregular components in the price of coconut and major coconut products like copra and coconut oil in India using the classical time series analysis (Croxton et al., 1979; Spiegel, 1992). The study is based on month wise price data for the period from 1976-77 to 2004-05. The prices showed an increasing secular trend. The domestic price of copra and coconut oil were found to be higher than the international price. It was also found that the domestic markets were well integrated among themselves and with the international market. There were marked seasonal variations in the prices of coconut and its products, with coconut prices remaining low during the months of peak production in March to April; and high when production was low during July to August. Price cycles of three to four years were observed for all the considered products. Widespread irregular movements were found to contribute to higher price fluctuations.

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icj, vol. lii no.7nov.09, p.15-22

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